Are You Prepared for the Full Market Cycle?

Ignoring History Could Cost You Everything​

If you’ve been investing for the past decade, you’ve lived through the longest bull market in history.

Stocks soared. Real estate exploded. Private equity delivered double-digit returns year after year.

But here’s the question no one’s asking:
What happens when the music stops?

The reality is we are not in a normal market. We’re at the tail end of a manipulated, artificially extended half-cycle. And history tells us that what comes next—the full cycle downturn—won’t just correct the excesses. It will reset the game entirely.

Most investors—and even most financial advisors—have no idea how to navigate what’s coming. Why? Because they’ve never lived through it. They’ve only known the good times.

If you plan to sell your business, retire, or transition from active to passive income in the next 3 to 5 years, understanding this full cycle shift isn’t optional. It’s mission critical.

The Business Cycle: Short-Term Swings

For over a century, the U.S. economy has followed predictable business cycles—on average, about 8 to 10 years long. Expansion, peak, recession, recovery. Rinse and repeat.

Historically, expansions average about 5.6 years, while recessions last about 11 months, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.

But since 2008, all bets were off. The Federal Reserve injected over $4 trillion into the markets, slashed interest rates to near zero, and kept them there for over a decade. This then artificially stretched the upcycle, creating a generation of investors who think markets only move in one direction: up.

The Secular Cycle: The Bigger Picture

Now let’s zoom out. Beyond the short business cycles are secular cycles—longer, multi-decade trends that set the stage for everything else.

The last secular cycle began in 1980 when the Fed hiked rates to nearly 20% to kill inflation. From there, interest rates declined steadily for 40 years, all the way to 2020.

That falling rate environment acted like a 40-year tailwind, fueling asset price appreciation across stocks, bonds, and real estate.

That secular cycle ended in 2020. We’ve now entered the next phase: rising rates. Borrowing costs have already tripled since 2022, and that’s just the beginning. 

For the first time in decades, we’re experiencing a business cycle downturn and a secular cycle reversal at the same time. Most investors have no context for this kind of environment because they’ve never seen it before.

It’s a new era of investing. The old rules no longer apply. If you’re still investing like it’s 2015, you’re flying blind.

Half-Cycle Investors Are Sitting Ducks

Most investors under 50 have only known the upside of the cycle. They started investing after 2008 and have been riding the rising tide ever since. But what goes up—especially when artificially inflated—always comes down.

And here’s the problem: even those who were around for the last crash have recency bias—the belief that the last 14 years are somehow normal. They aren’t.

Markets Today Are Built on Hope and Hype

What’s driving today’s market? Not fundamentals. Not innovation. It’s sentiment and speculation fueled by hope, hype, and central bank life support.

The “Trump bump,” the AI boom, the crypto comeback—all of it is froth. And when reality sets in, it’s the unprepared who will pay the price.

If you’re nearing retirement, selling your practice, or shifting from active to passive income, you can’t afford to be a half-cycle investor. You need a full-cycle strategy—one built for reality, not fantasy.

That means:

  1. Understanding market history so you recognize what’s happening in real-time.
  2. Knowing exactly where your capital sits—and whether it’s positioned for growth, income, or protection.
  3. Allocating to alternative assets that perform well in volatile environments (hint: not just stocks and bonds).
  4. Building replacement income streams that you control—income that doesn’t evaporate when the market turns.

The Biggest Wealth Transfer in a Generation is Coming

When the full cycle shift hits, wealth doesn’t just disappear—it transfers.

Some will give their wealth back to the market through ignorance and complacency.
Others will be on the receiving end, ready to scoop up undervalued assets at fire-sale prices.

Which side will you be on?

This isn’t speculation. This is history repeating itself.

Your Wake-Up Call

If you haven’t studied market cycles—or if your financial advisor has only known the good times—it’s time to take the reins yourself.

Freedom comes when your capital works for you—in any market. But that freedom only comes when you understand the rules of the game.

If you want to learn how to navigate this new landscape alongside other high-performing professionals, prioritizing their freedom and maximizing their cash flow, then schedule your call with my team here.

Freedom Founders isn’t for everybody. Only those committed to the process, seeking transformation across their portfolio and their habits, reap the reward of true freedom defined by them. 

The cycle is turning. The clock is ticking.
Are you ready?

If you’re nearing retirement... you can’t afford to be a half-cycle investor. You need a full-cycle strategy—one built for reality, not fantasy.

To your freedom!

– David

 

P.S. Whenever you’re ready, here are some other ways I can help fast track you to your Freedom goal (you’re closer than you think) :

 

1. Schedule a Call with My Team:

If you’d like to replace your active practice income with passive investment income within 2-3 years, and you have at least $1M in available capital (can include residential/practice equity or practice sale), then schedule a call with my team. If it looks like there is a mutual fit, you’ll have the opportunity to attend one of our upcoming member events as a guest. www.freedomfounders.com/schedule

2. Become a Full-Cycle Investor:

There are many self-proclaimed genius investors today who think everything they touch turns to gold. But they’re about to learn the hard way what others have gained through “expensive” experience. I’m offering a free report on how to become a full-cycle investor, who knows how to preserve and grow capital in Up and Down markets. Will you be prepared when the inevitable recession hits? Get your free report here.

3. Get Your Free Retirement Scorecard:

Benchmark your retirement and wealth-building against hundreds of other practice professionals, and get personalized feedback on your biggest opportunities and leverage points. Click here to take the 3 minute assessment and get your scorecard.

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