by Dr David Phelps
We are experiencing the end of the “set it and forget it” era.
Unfortunately, there will be no magic bullet or “one thing” that you can rely on to ensure profit at this stage of the market cycle.
What is needed is a strategy matrix that does not depend on correctly guessing the market’s next move. But what does that look like exactly?
ONE – Understand What You’re Investing In
This is a large issue today. Many have become complacent about investing.
They've been disciplined about saving money, buying certain financial products, and accumulating wealth in an IRA, 401(k), or tax brokerage account.
The discipline of saving is good, and we should all do it. Living beneath your means is hard to rein in at first but it’s oh so important. The issue lies with what you do with it once you set it apart.
I often ask people, “What's in your 401(k)?” They give me a blank look, “We’re supposed to know? We just give it to a money manager who allocates and diversifies it for us.”
That is not the most prudent way to invest. Yes, you may want to use other people to help you decide where to allocate your money and how to diversify your investments, but you should never just hand it over, not knowing where it will go.
The focus in 2025 is to become your best advocate for your financial future. Utilize outside expertise, guidance, or information, but decide for yourself. Don’t depend on someone else to figure out where it should go.
TWO – Know When to Hold and When to Fold
When should you hold an asset and weather the storm? And when should you just take the profits?
There have been some big run-ups in the last several years, even at the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025. It's been a big, bold market in the equity markets overall. Unfortunately, it's driven mainly by seven major tech companies.
If you take the tech companies out of the equation, the market has been relatively flat. If you've been an index fund or ETF player, you've done pretty darn well overall.
So, is now a good time to fold?
When the markets are at all-time highs, as they are today, it might be wise to take some of the profits and put them on higher ground (private lending, treasuries, safer assets, etc.).
We don’t know when the financial markets will drop, but for those near retirement or who have most of their savings tied to the stock market, do you really want to risk it?
Higher ground is not sexy. It’s not the big returns we’ve gotten used to. But if you don't know when to take profits out, in other words, when to fold and walk away, you could take the ride back down again.
When markets go up, particularly on a strong parabolic rise, the drop back – what we call reversion to the mean – is inevitable and most likely to be steep.
We don't know when, and we don't know how much, but trying to catch the very last push of the market is not wise.
THREE – A Renewed Focus on Alternatives Assets Outside Wall Street
Becoming more educated on the opportunities out there takes time and effort, especially with Wall Street’s marketing machine pushing its own biases.
However, I believe that we are in an era where the focus should be more on hard or tangible assets, what I call alternative assets. Alternative to the stock market.
I’m not telling you to take all your money out of Wall Street. The stock market does provide liquidity, which can be helpful in a portfolio. The problem is when the market drops and corrects, you'll be selling into a hole. No one buys as the markets go down – At least not at full price.
Alternatives like real estate, however, provide more room for opportunity and adaptability for individual investors as an inefficient marketplace.
If you’re willing to do the work, gain access to the right network, and understand the due diligence, there's much more opportunity, particularly in the coming decade.
To summarize: Understand what you're investing in, learn when to take chips off the table, and seek alternatives to traditional investments for diversification and protection.
Now is the time to seriously consider becoming a more active orchestrator of your financial future than you have been in the past.
For More Active Investors Wanting to Secure Their Wealth
For those who choose a more active involvement in one's financial future – not a full-time job, but more than just set it and forget – I’d be remiss not to warn against the dangers of complacency with the traditional Wall Street financial retirement model.
Just accumulating wealth in IRAs, 401(k)s, and other tax deferral accounts will not be enough for most people’s idea of retirement, no matter how much it’s marketed as such. Accumulating is not the same as protecting.
Since 2008, we've seen a great rise in the stock market. If you've ridden it up, congratulations, but I believe the markets will shift and change, particularly the equity markets on Wall Street.
When the markets correct, many will be wondering, “Where do I go next?”
This is why I stress looking into alternatives and making access points into other assets where you can hedge against downside risk.
Many won't heed the advice, but that’s okay. This isn’t for those looking to satisfy their fear of missing out (FOMO) or their greed.
Find the time to learn the discipline of when to hold back and when to reallocate investment capital to avoid taking major losses with the major corrections to come.
The last major downturn was in 2008. There was a minor one due to COVID in the spring of 2020. The next one will likely be a major correction, and you don't want to get caught short.
To navigate and maintain your financial freedom in the years ahead, looking into alternatives will be vital.
If you want a starting point, I’ve interviewed several investors on their own forefront of exploring these questions of alternatives. This is not a promotion but an attempt to curate information for you to make your own decisions.
Real Estate Reality Check: Strategies, Caution, and Cash Flow for Today’s Market with Mathew Owens.
Protecting your Wealth – Fiat Currency, Tangible Assets, and Commodities with Andrew McDannels.
How to Think for Yourself and Learn to Invest with Kim Kiyosaki
Just accumulating wealth in IRAs, 401(k)s, and other tax deferral accounts will not be enough for most people’s idea of retirement, no matter how much it’s marketed as such. Accumulating is not the same as protecting.
To your freedom!
– David
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